Gavekal Dragonomics

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Policy Support Falls Short

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Policy Support Falls Short

Wei He, Dragonomics Team
18 Mar 2024
China's economic data for January and February were mixed, but overall the economic growth momentum decelerated slightly. Wei and the Dragonomics team argue that recent policy measures have shown no sign of gaining traction in the data, and increase the uncertainty around coming policy support.
A Tale Of Two Housing Markets

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A Tale Of Two Housing Markets

Rosealea Yao
15 Mar 2024
China’s property market may be in crisis, but there is one segment where growth is still strong: sales of existing housing on the secondary market. Rosealea argues that strength in this market shows that Chinese households have not lost interest in real estate, and if developer finances stabilize, demand in the primary market should come back.

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The Supply-Side Structural Problem

Andrew Batson
13 Mar 2024
The current debate about China’s economy is dominated by demand: why isn’t there enough of it, how to get more of it. The focus on whether there is enough stimulus is encouraged by the perception that China’s consumer demand is structurally depressed. In this piece, Andrew argues this focus on demand is misplaced: China’s real structural problem is a surplus of supply created by its long, debt-fueled investment boom.

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Decelerating Auto Demand

Ernan Cui
11 Mar 2024
China’s auto industry has become an economic powerhouse, churning out vehicles that find favor with consumers both at home and abroad. But Ernan argues that demand looks set to slow substantially in 2024. As the froth comes off, overcapacity and falling prices will become more evident, exposing some of the costs of the industry’s rapid expansion.

Featured report

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Macro Update: Another Supply-Side Stimulus

Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team
26 Jan 2024
China managed to avoid entering a full-on deflationary spiral in 2023, but prices are still falling, growth is fragile and confidence is poor. Hopes for 2024 are pinned mostly on the government’s promises of more supply-side stimulus, yet this strategy poses its own challenges. In our latest quarterly chartbook, the Dragonomics team diagnoses the current economic difficulties and analyzes the implications of the response.

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Video: Peering Through The China Policy Opacity
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Christopher Beddor
Webinar: Asset Allocation For The Ages
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Didier Darcet, Charles Gave
Decoding The New Productive Forces
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Tilly Zhang
Introducing Fiscal Forward Guidance
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Wei He
Remembrance Of Crises Past
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Andrew Batson
Video: China’s New Economic Trajectory
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Arthur Kroeber
How To Fight The Demographic Drag
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Arthur Kroeber, Ernan Cui
The Solar Surge
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Rosealea Yao

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Securing The Western Frontier

Tom Miller
16 Dec 2021
China looks like a winner from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, now free to tighten its grip on Central Asia. In this DeepChina report, Tom explains the complex reality of the latest round of the "great game." China is getting closer to Russia, skeptical of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and consolidating its economic hold on Turkmenistan.

Stocks

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Stock Market

Thomas Gatley
2 Apr 2019
China’s onshore equity markets are now large and accessible enough that they can no longer be ignored by foreign investors—but idiosyncratic enough that they are hard to understand. This in-depth DeepChina report explains the fundamentals: What is there to invest in? Who owns the market? How can foreigners invest? How is the market regulated?

Bonds

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A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

Wei He, Xiaoxi Zhang
30 Jun 2021
The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

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Behind The Incredible Export Boom

Thomas Gatley
Chinese export growth ostensibly continues to outpace the rest of the world this year, but Thomas believes this could in part be due to misleading data. Exporters have been incentivized to reduce their under-invoicing, which has in turn materially inflated China’s export growth over the past three years.

Managing Covid

The Chinese Consumer In 2023
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The Invisible Second Wave
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Shanghai Seminar — April 2023
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The Reopening Recovery Is On Track
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Macro Update: Reversal, Reopening, Recovery
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Webinar: China’s Covid Surge And The Reopening Rally
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